Article by Yippee-Ki-Yay

Sasol stock analysis 2025: Investment guide & price forecast

Buy signal | Free publication | 16 Mar 2025

Who is Sasol Ltd?

Sasol Limited is a South African company specialising in chemicals and energy on a global scale. It has two main divisions: chemicals and energy. In its energy division, the company extracts coal to fuel the production of gas, electricity and steam in South Africa. It also manages the supply and transport of natural gas and methane via the ROMPCO pipeline in Mozambique, as well as selling these resources. At the same time, Sasol markets liquid fuels produced locally in South Africa. Its chemicals division offers a wide range of products grouped into four categories: advanced materials, base chemicals, essential care products and performance solutions. Through this structure, Sasol plays a key role in the chemical and energy industry, both in Africa and the rest of the world.

Valuation of Sasol Ltd

  • Turnover : 4/5 - Sasol's sales are rising steadily, reaching R334,919 million in 2029 compared with R203,576 million in 2019, showing good commercial momentum.
  • Net profit : 3/5 - Sasol's net profit has fallen significantly in recent years, from R4,298 million in 2019 to R91,754 million in 2020. Although signs of recovery are visible, profitability is still fragile.
  • Debt : 3/5 - Sasol has a high level of debt, with a net debt/equity ratio of around 1. Although debt levels appear stable, they remain relatively high compared with equity.
  • Return on equity (ROE) : 2/5 - Sasol's ROE has fallen in recent years, from 6.9% in 2019 to -61.8% in 2020, reflecting poor profitability.
  • Market performance : 4/5 - Sasol shares have performed well in recent months, rising by 60% over the year. However, its long-term performance remains mixed.

Average : 3,2/5 - Sasol is a company with mixed financial results, facing challenges in terms of profitability and debt. Although there are some positive signs, caution is called for when investing.

Forecasts for the coming years

  • 2025 : Sales should continue to grow, reaching around 310,000 million rand. Net profit is expected to improve to an estimated R35,000 million. Debt levels are expected to fall gradually.
  • 2026 : Sales are expected to be around 320,000 million rand. Net profit should continue to improve, with an estimated R38,000 million. Debt levels should continue to fall.

Estimated share value

Based on these forecasts, we estimate that Sasol's share price could reach between 280 and 320 rand (€16 and €19) by 2025-2026.

Investment budget

Given Sasol's valuation, I would recommend allocating a low budget for the time being, as the stock is still depreciating. The portfolio is likely to be strengthened in the coming months.

Summary

Sasol is a company that deserves particular attention, but still requires efforts to improve its profitability and reduce its debt. A limited exposure in your portfolio would be reasonable, while diversifying your investments towards other more financially solid companies.

  • Signal : Buy
  • Budget/Investment : low
  • Reinforcement required : Yes, on fallback
  • Exposure : Moderate
  • Horizon : 3 to 4 years
  • Potential profitability : +230% à +295%
  • Ref. ISIN code : US8038663006
  • Article updated on 07/04/2026: Shares were purchased in January 2025 at €4, then at €3.48 and €2.84 per share in April 2025. All Sasol Ltd ADRs were sold in April 2026 at €11.10 per share, representing an excellent capital gain of 184.53% 😎