Article by Yippee-Ki-Yay

Bilibili Shares: Should You Buy in 2026?

Buy signal | Private publication | 13 Aug 2026

Bilibili: the stock market’s ‘otaku’ has (finally) got out of the red

1. Bilibili, c'est qui exactement ?

If you’re not familiar with Bilibili, imagine an unlikely mix of YouTube, Twitch, Discord and a never-ending manga convention. Launched in 2009 as a hub for anime and video game fans, the Chinese platform has evolved into a fully-fledged entertainment ecosystem for Generation Z: videos, live streaming, mobile games, e-commerce for merchandise and even original content production. Its secret weapon? A hyper-loyal community that doesn’t just consume content – it participates, comments and creates. The result is a level of engagement that Douyin (the Chinese TikTok) can only envy.

Currently listed on the Nasdaq as an ADR at $18.91, Bilibili has just reached a major symbolic milestone: its first profitable year ever. After years of burning through cash as if it were going out of fashion, the company is finally proving that it knows how to turn its audience into profit. Let’s see if this holds up.

2. Detailed financial analysis: the report card

Turnover (4/5) — business is running, but slowing down

Turnover is set to rise from CNY 22.5 billion in 2023 to CNY 30.35 billion in 2025, representing a 13.1 per cent increase over the past year (following a 19.1 per cent rise in 2024). Momentum remains strong, but signs of maturity are becoming apparent: forecasts predict growth of 8.9 per cent in 2026 and 10.5 per cent in 2027. Not bad, but a far cry from the heady days of 40 per cent growth.

Net profit (3.5/5) — finally in the black

Following massive losses (–7.5 billion CNY in 2022, –4.8 billion in 2023, –1.35 billion in 2024), Bilibili posted a net profit of 1.19 billion CNY in 2025. This is THE news that changes everything. However, the net margin remains modest (~3.9%), so we maintain a cautious stance: the turnaround is real, but profitability is not yet robust.

Debt (4.5/5) — the balance sheet is rock-solid

With CNY 24.3 billion in cash and short-term investments, compared with total debt of just CNY 9.6 billion, Bilibili has a positive net cash position of around CNY 14.7 billion. And forecasts suggest that this cash buffer will continue to grow until 2029. This is the sort of financial strength that allows one to sleep soundly even when the Chinese market is acting up.

ROE (3.5/5) — decent, though not outstanding

The TTM ROE stands at 17.4 per cent, with projections ranging from 15.5 per cent to 18.7 per cent through to 2030. This is respectable for a tech platform in the midst of transitioning to profitability, but it is a far cry from the 25–30 per cent ROEs achieved by the sector’s established giants.

Value (3.5/5) — expensive yesterday, reasonable tomorrow

The TTM P/E ratio of 40.6x may seem a little steep at first glance. However, given the expected growth in earnings per share (from $0.46 to $1.06 over a rolling 12-month period), the forward P/E ratio falls to 17.7x. The consensus among analysts clearly favours a ‘Buy’ rating. Verdict: it’s expensive based on past results, but reasonable based on future results — provided the company delivers.

General conclusion

Bilibili is a company undergoing a major transformation, shifting from being an ‘attractive cash-burner’ to a ‘credible profit-maker’, backed by a very reassuring balance sheet. An honest and well-deserved overall rating: 3.8/5.

3. Outlook for 2026–2027: how far can the rocket go?

The forecasts are frankly encouraging. Revenue is expected to reach 33.05 billion CNY in 2026 and then 36.5 billion CNY in 2027, driven by advertising, mobile gaming and premium subscriptions. But it is the net profit that is particularly impressive: CNY 3.14 billion is expected in 2026 (+163%!) and CNY 3.97 billion in 2027 (+26.6%). In other words, analysts are anticipating a massive operational leverage effect: revenue is rising moderately, but profits are soaring as fixed costs are now being absorbed.

Price estimate (to be taken with a pinch of salt – it’s not an exact science):

  • End of 2026: around $20–22 — based on a forward multiple of 19–20x applied to an expected EPS of around $1.06, with a slight re-rating effect following confirmation of profitability.
  • End of 2027: around $26–29 — provided the earnings growth trajectory holds (EPS close to $1.35–1.40) and the market finally awards Bilibili the quality premium it reserves for profitable tech stocks with double-digit growth.

4. Sector analysis: strengths and weaknesses

Key strengths of the sector (streaming, gaming and ACG in China):

  • A young, engaged and loyal user base (ACG content = anime/comics/games)
  • Multi-channel monetisation: advertising, games, value-added services, live streaming, e-commerce
  • Strong cultural barriers that shield the platform from non-specialised competitors
  • Indirect support from the Chinese government for the production of domestic content

Weaknesses in the sector:

  • Ongoing regulatory risk in China (gaming licences, censorship, platform oversight)
  • Fierce competition for users’ attention (Douyin, Kuaishou, Tencent)
  • Geopolitical risk linked to ADR status (US-China tensions, risk of delisting)
  • Reliance on a few ‘hit’ gaming titles for peaks in profitability
  • Chinese consumer spending remains fragile in the post-Covid period

5. Conclusion: to buy or not to buy?

Honestly? Bilibili proved its worth in 2025, and the outlook for 2026–2027 looks very promising. Its balance sheet is rock-solid, revenue growth remains solid, and, above all, profitability — which has finally materialised — is set to accelerate sharply. The trailing P/E ratio is a bit daunting, but the forward P/E ratio puts things into perspective.

My honest view: this is a ‘Buy’ stock to be approached with discipline, not a blind impulse buy. There is real upside potential if execution holds up, but geopolitical and regulatory risks in China mean you need to keep your position size reasonable and your nerves steady. Bilibili is no longer the speculative bet it was three years ago — it has become a profitable growth story to watch very closely.

  • Signal : Buy
  • Budget/Investment : Medium
  • Reinforcement required : Yes, under $12
  • Exposure : Medium
  • Horizon : 1 to 3 years
  • Potential profitability : +44% to +61%
  • Ref. ISIN code : US0900401060