NTG Nordic Transport Group analysis: 2026-2027 forecasts for the Danish carrier

NTG Nordic Transport Group: The Danish Transport Company Playing in the Big Leagues 🚚

Hello investors! Today, we're going to take a closer look at NTG Nordic Transport Group, a Danish transport and logistics company. With shares trading at DKK 188 (around £20), is it worth investing in? Spoiler alert: it's pretty solid, but not without a few areas of turbulence.

Who are these guys?

NTG Nordic Transport Group is a major player in logistics in Northern Europe. Founded in Denmark, this company manages everything that moves: road, sea and air transport, warehousing... In short, if a parcel needs to go from point A to point B, NTG takes care of it. Listed on the stock exchange, it plays in the mid-cap category with a strong presence in Scandinavia and beyond.

The Numbers That Speak: My Analysis in 5 Categories 📊

Let's get to the heart of the matter with my in-house rating out of 5 for each important aspect.

1. Turnover: 4/5 💰

NTG's turnover is impressive! In 2024, they posted DKK 9,352 million (approximately €1.25 billion). Okay, that's a slight decline from 2022, when they were at DKK 10,224 million, but it's still very respectable.

Growth isn't spectacular, but it's there. Between 2019 and 2024, they went from DKK 5,332 million to DKK 9,352 million, an increase of 75% in five years. Not bad for such a competitive sector! The only slight downside is that 2024 marks a slowdown, probably linked to the somewhat sluggish European economic climate.

Verdict: Solid, but watch out for stagnation.

2. Net profit: 3.5/5 📉

Here, we have a bit of a rollercoaster ride. Net profit for 2024 stands at DKK 297 million, which is acceptable but down from 2022 (DKK 482 million) and 2023 (DKK 374 million).

What worries me a little is the EPS (earnings per share), which has fallen from 21.43 in 2022 to just 13.91 in 2024. This means that even though the company is generating cash, profitability per share is declining. Not great for us shareholders!

But hey, they're still well in the black, unlike in 2019 when they were deep in the red (-11.73 million). It shows they know how to bounce back.

Verdict: Profitable but recently losing momentum.

3. Debt: 3/5 💳

Debt is the lifeblood of business. In 2024, NTG had total debt of DKK 1,841 million against equity of DKK 1,258 million. This gives us a debt/equity ratio of around 1.46.

It's not catastrophic, but it's not insignificant either. Basically, for every £1 of equity, they owe £1.46. In the logistics sector, this is fairly typical given the investments required (trucks, warehouses, etc.), but it remains a burden to watch.

The positive side? Their long-term debt has increased (€503 million in 2024 vs €228 million in 2023), which may indicate investments for the future. But it has to pay off!

Verdict: Indebted but manageable.

4. Return on Equity (ROE): 3.5/5 📈

ROE is a measure of how effectively a company makes your money work for you. In 2024, NTG posted an ROE of around 23.6% (£297 million net profit / £1,258 million equity).

That's pretty good! In general, an ROE above 15% is considered solid. This means that NTG knows how to turn equity into profits. But beware, in 2022, this ROE was much better (around 50%), so we are seeing a decline.

Verdict: Profitable, but the trend is down.

5. Stock Market Performance & Valuation: 3/5 📊

With a share price of DKK 188 and a book value per share of approximately DKK 59 (1,258 million / 21.35 million shares), the price/book ratio is approximately 3.2. This means that the market values the company at 3.2 times its book value. It's not cheap, but it's not crazy either.

The current P/E ratio is around 13.5 (DKK 188 / 13.91 EPS), which is reasonable for a company with moderate growth.

Verdict: Fair valuation, neither too expensive nor a bargain.

Overall rating: 3.4/5 ⭐

In summary, NTG Nordic Transport Group is a solid but not exceptional company. It generates cash, has an interesting market position, but is showing signs of slowing down in terms of profitability and growth. It's not the gem of the century, but it's far from being a liability.

Strengths & Weaknesses: The Balance of Growth ⚖️

✅ Strengths (what makes it tick)

1. Solid Cash Generation 💸
With DKK 371 million in operating cash in 2024, NTG knows how to generate money. This is essential for investing and growing without drowning in debt.
2. Impressive Historical Growth 📈
+75% revenue growth in 5 years (2019-2024) is no small feat!
3. Strategic Geographical Position 🌍
Based in Scandinavia and Northern Europe, they are at the heart of European trade flows.
4. Diversification of Services 🚚✈️🚢
Road, air and sea transport, warehousing... NTG doesn't put all its eggs in one basket. This limits the risks if one segment fails.
5. Optimistic Forecasts 🔮
Projections show a rebound in net income: £384 million in 2026 and £440 million in 2027.
6. Stable Gross Margin 💪
Around 18-19% for several years. This shows an ability to maintain profitability despite fierce competition.

❌ Weaknesses (the grains of sand in the gears)

1. Declining profitability 📉
EPS fell from 21.43 in 2022 to 13.91 in 2024. That's a 35% drop in two years! Net income is following the same trend.
2. Growing debt 💳
Debt is skyrocketing: from £1,243 million in 2023 to £1,841 million in 2024 (+48%!). Yes, this may be for investment purposes, but it remains risky if the economy slows down.
3. Ultra-Competitive Sector 🥊
Logistics is a jungle. Amazon, DHL, DB Schenker... The big monsters can crush the little ones.
4. Dependence on the economic cycle 🎢 When the economy sneezes, transport catches a cold. The decline in turnover in 2024 shows that NTG is sensitive to European economic slowdowns.
5. Heavy Investment Required 🏗️
CapEx (capital expenditure) is climbing: £34 million in 2024, forecast to reach £68 million in 2026.
6. No Dividends 💰❌
Zero dividends paid. If you're looking for passive income, move on. Everything is reinvested in growth.

Forecasts for 2026-2027 🔮

Based on the data provided, the forecasts for NTG are fairly optimistic:

2026: Net profit expected to reach DKK 384 million, with EPS rising to around 16.75-17
2027: Net income forecast at DKK 440 million, EPS around 19.3-19.26

If these forecasts come true, we can estimate the value of the share:

2026: With a P/E ratio of 13, this would give us around DKK 217-221 (i.e. +15-17%)
2027: Still with a P/E ratio of 13, we could aim for DKK 250 (i.e. +33%)

Not bad growth prospects, right?

Conclusion: Go or No Go? ✅

Go, but don't put all your eggs in one basket. NTG Nordic Transport Group is a bit like a reliable friend: it won't let you down, but don't expect fireworks every day. For a balanced portfolio, it's an interesting addition, especially if you believe in the European economic recovery.

Good luck hunting for bargains! 🚀

Signal : Buy
Budget/Investment : Low/Medium
Reinforcement required : No
Exposure : Medium
Horizon : 2 to 3 years
Potential profitability : +33%
Ref. ISIN code : DK0061141215

Article by Yippee-Ki-Yay